Thunderstorm Outlook Mon 25 - Thu 28 July

This week promises to be very favourable for thunderstorms in southwestern Europe - the flow pattern that we would wish for will at least be present till Thursday and perhaps even Monday next week, yielding a couple good nightly storms. Hopefully the observing conditions cooperate as well... but it seems likely that clouds will sometimes affect observations as moist unstable air also lingers around the Pyrenees.

Tonight the best conditions will come together mostly in southeastern France, near the Alps, with possibly isolated activity stretching from there to the Pyrenees. Tuesday night there may be storm activity developing in southwestern France, Wednesday night the focus for storms seems to be at the warm front over northwestern and central France, and Thursday seems the most classical situation for sprites, as a cold front sweeps through France. Of course, all depends on timing so the outlook may change.

After this week, the ensemble prediction system runs are still very uniform and forecast a dreadful high pressure area occupying the position where there is currently low pressure.